AGP Executive Report

Tourism Momentum: Morocco is pulling ahead as a “kingdom of light” destination, with visitor numbers hitting 17.4 million in 2024—up 20% year-on-year—helped by improving roads, more stadium capacity, and a strong value-for-money hotel and food scene. Migration Crackdown: Morocco’s mass deportations of sub-Saharan migrants are intensifying, with reports of raids detaining hundreds and pushing people toward the Algerian border, amid deeper EU funding for border enforcement. AI and Control: A new report warns AI is making authoritarian governance cheaper and faster across Africa, with smart-city surveillance spending flagged in multiple countries including Algeria. Climate Court Clash: The ICJ’s climate obligations pushback is growing, with major oil producers opposing a UN-backed advisory push that could open more climate litigation. Energy Investment Talk: Algeria’s Sonatrach joined an Istanbul summit focused on how to keep hydrocarbons investment moving while managing the low-carbon transition. World Cup Build-Up: The 48-team U-17 draw sets tough early tests for Caribbean sides, while the wider 2026 World Cup continues to expand Arab representation.

Migration Crackdown Watch: Morocco’s mass deportations of sub-Saharan migrants—reportedly arresting 100+ people a day since mid-April—are being linked to EU border “externalization,” with allegations of beatings, racist abuse, and forced transfers toward the Algerian border. AI & Governance: A new warning says AI is making authoritarian control cheaper and faster, with at least 11 African governments named as having spent over $2bn on smart-city surveillance, including Algeria. Climate Court Clash: The ICJ’s climate obligations pushback is growing: eight major oil producers (including the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia) voted against a UN resolution backing the advisory ruling, raising the stakes for future climate litigation. Energy & Markets: Oil above $100/bbl is reviving windfall tax talk across multiple regions, while OPEC+ sources say a modest July output increase may be agreed despite Iran-war disruptions. Industry Signal: Algeria’s Sonatrach joined an Istanbul summit on hydrocarbons and critical minerals, stressing energy security alongside the low-carbon transition.

Western Sahara Diplomacy: A US adviser urged Algeria to play a more active role in the UN-backed peace process, pointing to Security Council Resolution 2797 and Morocco’s autonomy plan—signaling Algeria’s stance may be shifting after losing some support from key allies. Energy Investment Forum: Sonatrach CEO Noureddine Daoudi joined discussions in Istanbul on how to keep hydrocarbons and critical minerals investment moving amid geopolitical uncertainty and the low-carbon transition. Oil Market Pressure: The IEA warns the Strait of Hormuz disruption could push the market into a “red zone” from July, with a supply shortfall estimated at 14 million barrels per day, while OPEC+ sources say a modest July output increase is still on the table despite delivery disruptions. Steel Snapshot: Worldsteel reported April 2026 crude steel output at 153.4Mt, down 1.9% year-on-year; Africa rose to 2.1Mt (+11.5%), including Algeria among reporting countries. Humanitarian Convoy: Volunteers remain stuck in Libya’s desert trying to reach Gaza by road with ambulances and medical supplies, as communications intermittently fail. Water Culture: A new push argues MENA water policy must move beyond engineering toward “water literacy” and a culture adapted to climate realities.

Western Sahara Diplomacy: A U.S. presidential adviser for Arab and African affairs, Massad Boulos, met Algeria’s ambassador in Washington and urged Algeria to back a UN-backed push toward a resolution tied to UN Security Council Resolution 2797 and Morocco’s autonomy plan—signaling Algeria may be recalibrating after losing some support from key allies, including Russia. Energy Investment Outlook: At the Istanbul Natural Resources Summit, Sonatrach’s CEO joined regional energy leaders to debate how to keep hydrocarbons and critical minerals investment moving amid geopolitical shocks while balancing energy security and the low-carbon transition. Oil Market Pressure: Japan reported a historic drop in crude imports from Arab suppliers in April, linked to Strait of Hormuz disruptions—an early warning for downstream supply chains. OPEC+ Watch: Sources say seven OPEC+ members are likely to agree on a modest July output increase despite delivery disruptions from the Iran war. Food Tech Push: Farmers across Africa are turning to AI tools like cow facial recognition and soil analysis to protect yields as import dependence rises.

Maritime Deal: Baleària has completed the first phase of its planned acquisition of Armas Trasmediterránea, taking control of Armas’ Canary Islands assets—boosting its position as Spain’s top scheduled ferry operator and adding a fleet integration plan covering 15 ships (with Gibraltar and Alboran Sea procedures still pending). Energy Watch: OPEC+ leaders are expected to agree a modest July output increase of about 188,000 bpd despite Hormuz-related disruption, with decisions still not final and UAE’s recent exit reshaping internal dynamics. Regional Integration Push: AUDA-NEPAD is again calling for faster African economic integration, stressing that freedom of movement for goods and people can’t wait. Tech for Food Security: Farmers across Africa are turning to AI—from cow facial recognition to soil analysis—to raise yields as import dependence and population growth squeeze supplies. Algeria Angle: Algeria is named among the key food-import consumers and also appears in new cooperation signals, including AI and pharma collaboration themes.

Climate Accountability at UN: The UN General Assembly backed a resolution urging states to uphold climate obligations after the ICJ advisory ruling, passing 141-8 with 28 abstentions—though major emitters pushed the text to be less forceful. Morocco–France Reset: Morocco and France move toward a treaty during King Mohammed VI’s upcoming visit, with Paris backing Western Sahara talks on autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty—an approach Algeria says is “irreversible.” Food Crisis Tech Push: Experts at GITEX Kenya say AI tools like soil analysis and farm forecasting can help farmers respond to climate shocks as Africa’s food import bill nears $100bn. Logistics Expansion: Swissport is entering Morocco’s cargo market via acquisition of Swiftair Maroc at Mohammed V Airport. Energy & Trade Context: Algeria-linked LNG and upstream disputes remain in focus as global gas pricing stays volatile amid conflict. Sports Spotlight: Ghana’s Joseph Narbi starred as Black Starlets beat South Africa 3-1 at U17 AFCON; Algeria advanced on lots.

Qatar Capital Markets Push: Estithmar is exploring a flotation of its healthcare unit Apex Health on the Qatar Stock Exchange, hiring Rothschild & Co.; the plan is early, but Apex Health’s 2025 profit of about 592m riyals and a regional footprint across Qatar, Iraq, Algeria and Libya (around 2,700 beds) could give the deal real momentum as Qatar’s benchmark index slips. Algeria-Linked Health & Pharma Moves: Algeria’s push for medical capacity continues with Algeria–Hungary talks focused on R&D and clinical trials, while broader regional cooperation keeps showing up in healthcare and industry partnerships. Energy & Security Context: Russia’s alleged plundering of occupied Ukraine resources and a major MENA cyber crackdown (Operation Ramz) underline how conflict pressures supply chains and digital infrastructure. World Cup Spillover: FIFA 2026 demand looks softer than expected in parts of the US, but Algeria-related fan activity is still set to travel—turning sport into a near-term business opportunity.

UN Climate Pressure: The UN General Assembly is set to consider a resolution meant to turn the ICJ’s climate ruling into action, but major emitters have watered it down as national security and industrial interests took priority. Cybercrime Crackdown: INTERPOL’s “Operation Ramz” wrapped up with 53 servers seized and 201 arrests across 13 MENA countries, including Algeria, targeting phishing and malware networks. Energy Links: Türkiye’s March data show gas imports up slightly year-on-year, with LNG deliveries including Algeria—while consumption fell, and storage stayed steady. Water & Industry Recognition: Algeria’s Cap Blanc SWRO is named a 2026 Water Project of the Year finalist winner at the Global Water Awards, highlighting continued investment in water infrastructure. Agriculture Diplomacy: Egypt and Algeria are pushing deeper farm cooperation—irrigation know-how, drought-resistant seeds, and veterinary vaccine collaboration—aiming to build more resilient regional supply chains. Pharma R&D Push: Algeria is also moving to expand pharmaceutical collaboration with Hungary through R&D and clinical trials.

Cybersecurity Crackdown: INTERPOL’s Operation Ramz has struck across 13 MENA countries, including Algeria, seizing 53 servers, arresting 201 people, and identifying 382 suspects tied to phishing, malware and investment scams—showing how fast cyber fraud networks operate across borders. Agribusiness Diplomacy: In Algiers, Egypt and Algeria agreed to deepen agricultural cooperation, including desert reclamation know-how, modern irrigation, drought-resistant seeds, and work on livestock breeding and veterinary vaccines. Pharma R&D Push: Algeria also moved to expand its pharmaceutical base through Algeria–Hungary talks focused on R&D and clinical trials. Energy Watch (Tunisia): Tunisia reported electricity production up 7% by end-March, with imports (mainly from Algeria) covering 9% of local needs. Tech & Trade: The UK launched a pan-African founder support programme during London Tech Week, aiming to help African startups access the UK market.

Cybercrime Crackdown: Interpol says Operation Ramz netted 201 arrests across 13 countries, including Algeria, after phishing and malware networks were hit hard—Algerian police shut a phishing-as-a-service site and seized devices and servers. Humanitarian Flotilla Fallout: In the Mediterranean, Israel’s interception of the Gaza-bound Global Sumud flotilla triggered mass protests in Italy and Greece and drew fresh EU condemnation, with reports also claiming a South Korean activist was detained after the attack. Education & Accreditation: Algeria’s regionally relevant angle shows up via NUC deployment of 26 experts to accredit postgraduate programmes at PAULESI, with panels covering areas from petroleum geoscience to environmental management. Energy & Trade Pressure: Separate from Algeria, Hormuz-linked supply stress continues to ripple through markets, while global LPG flows show signs of recovery—important context for North Africa’s energy planning.

Cannes Culture Clash: France’s Canal+ is threatening to blacklist 600 film professionals after a petition by industry figures including Juliette Binoche and others criticized billionaire Vincent Bolloré’s growing control over media and film funding, with fears of a rightward editorial shift ahead of 2027. Gulf Mediation Under Pressure: Qatar keeps positioning itself as a peace broker even as Iran-war fallout and Hormuz disruption squeeze its energy exports. Aviation & Sanctions: Russia’s summer 2026 direct flight network is set to shrink sharply—routes to Algeria reportedly removed in April—amid sanctions, drone threats, and fuel constraints. Energy Watch: The IEA warns global oil inventories are being depleted fast, leaving only weeks of buffer and raising volatility risks into peak summer demand. Algeria Trade Signal: HD Hyundai XiteSolution says it won a government-linked Algeria order for 316 industrial vehicles (forklifts) worth $25m, with phased deliveries by August. Humanitarian Movement: An international aid convoy “Sumud 2” has departed Libya toward Gaza via Egypt’s Rafah crossing, including Algerian participants.

Energy Pressure: The IEA warns global commercial oil inventories are being drawn down fast, with only a few weeks left and more price swings likely heading into peak summer demand. AI Security: NETSCOUT says AI is lowering barriers to DDoS-for-hire attacks across Africa and beyond, with EMEA the most hit region in late 2025. Oman Spillover for Gulf Investors: Oman Investment Authority posted record 2025 profits of OMR2.9bn and a 14.6% return, underscoring how sovereign capital is still hunting growth. Algeria Tech Push: Algeria is exploring AI cooperation with Russia, including joint startup financing and university research aimed at building AI firms for African and European markets. Trade & Shipping Watch: Hormuz-linked shipping disruptions are rippling into supply chains, from naphtha-derived inputs to packaging materials. Humanitarian Logistics: “Sumud 2/Resilience 2” — with Algerian participation — is preparing to leave Libya for Gaza via Egypt’s Rafah crossing.

AI Partnership Push: Algeria is signaling a deeper tech tie with Russia, proposing joint startup financing, university research links, and AI ventures aimed at African and European markets. Energy Trade Watch: Global seaborne LPG exports are rebounding toward the five-year norm after Middle East disruptions, with Algeria named among the suppliers stepping up—though a shortfall versus February highs still lingers. Humanitarian Route: The “Sumud 2/Resilience 2” land convoy—reportedly including Algerian volunteers—has been moving from Algeria through Libya toward Egypt’s Rafah crossing to deliver aid to Gaza. Industrial Deal: HD Hyundai XiteSolution says it has won a major Algerian government contract to supply 316 forklifts, with phased deliveries due by August. Safety Concern Abroad: A Dubai freediving death is spotlighting growing participation without enough training. Sports Angle: Algeria’s U-17s rallied to draw Ghana 2-2 in the CAF U-17 AFCON opener, with Eric Adu Gyamfi earning Man of the Match.

Algeria–MENA Industrial Push: HD Hyundai XiteSolution says it has won a major Algerian government contract to supply 316 industrial forklifts (10-ton, 25-ton and 30-ton) worth about $25m, with phased deliveries due by August—plus additional MENA orders worth $4m, betting on tailored configurations and after-sales support. AI Partnership Talks: Algeria’s knowledge-economy minister Noureddine Ouadah floated deeper AI cooperation with Russia at KazanForum, proposing joint startup financing, university research links, and AI company development aimed at African and European markets. Migration Watch: IOM data shows irregular migration flows from Libya down about 17% in Q1 2026, while arrivals across Libya’s western borders (Tunisia/Algeria) nearly doubled, driven by construction and agriculture job pull. Humanitarian Link: Algeria is also listed among participants in the “Sumud 2/Resilience 2” land convoy heading from Libya toward Gaza via Egypt’s Rafah crossing. Regional Politics & Rights: A Sahrawi NGO alliance sharply criticized Amnesty International over alleged omissions tied to Tindouf-camp-related killings by Algerian forces.

AI Partnership: Algeria is pitching a deeper AI deal with Russia, proposing joint startup financing, university research links, and new AI firms aimed at African and European markets. Energy & Prices: With crude still elevated amid Iran-related tensions, oil-dependent states—including Algeria—remain exposed as higher prices lift budgets but also feed inflation pressures. Migration Watch: IOM reports irregular migration flows originating from Libya fell about 17% in Q1 2026, while arrivals across Libya’s western borders nearly doubled. Humanitarian Logistics: A “Soumoud 2” land convoy is preparing to leave Libya for Gaza via Egypt’s Rafah crossing, with Algerian volunteers among a multi-country team. Diplomacy: Slovakia signals it wants stronger ties with Algeria, including energy cooperation and a planned embassy opening. World Cup Economy: Hotel bookings for the 2026 tournament are lagging versus early expectations, with organizers urging focus on what they can control.

Humanitarian Access: A new “Resilience 2 / Sumud 2” land convoy has left Zawiya, Libya, aiming to reach Gaza via Egypt’s Rafah crossing, with an Algerian team among volunteers carrying medical supplies, mobile housing units and ambulances—after earlier attempts were blocked by coordination and access hurdles. Energy & Industry Links: Slovakia says it wants deeper cooperation with Algeria, especially on energy and political dialogue, and plans to open a Slovak embassy in Algiers. Digital Connectivity: A Via Africa Atlantic subsea cable consortium is moving into its first development phase, targeting higher-capacity, more resilient links from Europe down Africa’s Atlantic coast. Food Prices Pressure: Europe’s fertilizer producers face sustained strain from energy costs and new trade rules, with Algeria positioned as a key raw-material supplier. AI Partnerships: Algeria’s minister says cooperation with Russia on AI—through joint R&D, startups and university links—is on the table. Sports & Mobility: The US is easing FIFA World Cup visa-bond rules for eligible fans from countries including Algeria, while Algeria’s U-17 team saw a dramatic opener draw with Ghana.